How we develop our Outlook

The Global Outlook is ExxonMobil’s view of energy demand and supply through 2050. A foundation of our business plan, the analysis is based on a long-term assessment of:

• Economic trends
• Advances in technology
• Consumer behavior
• Climate-related public policy

How we develop the Global Outlook

We use a data-driven approach to understand potential future energy demand and supply.

Monitoring policy and technology trends

The Company monitors changes in technology, such as solar panels getting cheaper and batteries improving, as well as policy developments like the EU’s tailpipe emissions regulations and China’s 14th five-year plan.

Historical foundation and fundamentals

ExxonMobil uses the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Statistics and Balances data service and other credible third-party sources as the historical basis for the Outlook. For liquids supply, we use S&P Global Platts data. For natural gas, historical production, pipeline flows and LNG data are based on Wood Mackenzie, JODI Gas, S&P Global Platts and others.  In this report, data for 2023 and earlier are considered historical; the Outlook’s modeled projections cover 2024 to 2050.

The Company compiles demographic information and models economic trends for about 100 regions around the world. Primary sources are the United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and IHS. Population estimates are compiled from the U.N. and the World Bank. Economic trends (e.g., GDP) are modeled based on respected third-party views and ExxonMobil’s own analysis¹.

Use of sensitivity analysis

ExxonMobil uses sensitivity analyses to provide greater perspective on how variations to its Outlook assumptions could affect projected energy supply and demand. These analyses involve assessing technology advancements and the potential impact on energy supply and demand, resulting in a range of potential low- to high-demand outcomes for certain energy sources. The projections in the sensitivity analyses do not represent the Company’s viewpoint or the likelihood of these alternatives; they can provide context to its analysis.

Modeling

The Company projects demand for services across 15 sectors covering needs for personal mobility; residential energy; production of steel, cement and chemicals; plus many others. Then it matches that demand across multiple energy sources, taking into account current use and potential evolution. It also projects liquid and natural gas supply and trade flows². 

FOOTNOTES:

1. Historical data profiles for energy demand, liquids and gas supply, demographic and economic trends are based upon publicly available third-party data. The historical data may be converted into different scientific metrics, or aggregated or disaggregated by regions, sectors or fuels where necessary to complete our analysis. Where there are differences, imbalances or gaps in reported historical data among credible third-parties, professional judgment is applied. Projections begin in 2024, with 2023 as the reference year being the latest year of historical data. Historical data compiled from third-party sources can be subject to later revision as new information becomes available.
2. Proprietary, internally-developed models are used to model future (1) demand for energy services and energy sources, (2) oil and gas production and (3) natural gas trade flows via pipeline and liquefied natural gas. In addition to the historical foundation and projections of fundamental drivers, these proprietary models use our internal assumptions on many variables such as expected efficiency improvements, the pace of deployment of technology advances, costs, consumer preference and much more. Our internal assumptions are informed by our own proprietary data and analysis, publicly available data and the views of credible third party consultants, academics and think-tanks. Estimates of energy-related CO₂ emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels are derived from the historical and projected energy demand by applying an emissions factor for each fossil fuel type.

References List

BNEF Wind and Solar Tracker: Historical data from the Capacity and Generation Power tool tracker from BloombergNEF, 2023

IAEA PRIS Database: Publicly available data from the Power Reactor Information System, developed and maintained by the International Atomic Energy Agency, 2023.

Edward Byers, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, Jarmo Kikstra, Robin Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls, Marit Sanstad, Chris Smith, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Franck Lecocq, Joana Portugal-Pereira, Yamina Saheb, Anders Strømann, Harald Winkler, Cornelia Auer, Elina Brutschin, Matthew Gidden, Philip Hackstock, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Peter Kolp, Claire Lepault, Jared Lewis, Giacomo Marangoni, Eduardo Müller-Casseres, Ragnhild Skeie, Michaela Werning, Katherine Calvin, Piers Forster, Celine Guivarch, Tomoko Hasegawa, Malte Meinshausen, Glen Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Bjorn Samset, Julia Steinberger, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef van Vuuren.  AR6 Scenarios Database hosted by IIASA, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2022. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.5886911 | url: data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/; Likely Below 2°C defined by category C3

IEA (2017), The Future of Trucks, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-trucks, Licence: CC BY 4.0

IEA (2022), Renewables 2022, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022, Licence: CC BY 4.0

IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2023, License: CC BY 4.0 (report)

IEA (2024), Renewables 2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2023, Licence: CC BY 4.0

IEA (2024), Strategies for Affordable and Fair Clean Energy Transitions, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/strategies-for-affordable-and-fair-clean-energy-transitions, Licence: CC BY 4.0

IEA Transport Project: Where cited, this analysis is partially based on the historical data developed by the International Energy Agency, 2023 as part of its Transport project, all rights reserved, but the resulting analysis has been prepared by Exxon Mobil and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Energy Agency.

OPEC 2023 World Oil Outlook 2045.  

Smil, V. (2010) Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects. ABC-CLIO, Santa Barbara.

UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2022. Human Development Report 2021-22: Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping our Future in a Transforming World. New York.

United Nations Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report 2021, The Heat Is On: A World of Climate Promises Not Yet Delivered, https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021.

Wood Mackenzie project database: Wood Mackenzie 3Q 2023 hydrogen and carbon capture Project Tracker.

World Bank Group: Understanding Poverty, April 2024

Legal information

The “Global Outlook” portion of the website is an interactive version of the Company’s 2024 Global Outlook. Some of the hyperlinks embedded in this section link to other parts of the Outlook, and some take the reader to other articles and information on the Company’s website.

Cautionary statement

The Global Outlook includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates of both historical levels and projections of challenging topics such as energy demand, supply, and trends through 2050 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from many external sources including the International Energy Agency. Separate from ExxonMobil’s analysis, we discuss a number of third-party scenarios such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Likely Below 2°C and the International Energy Agency scenarios. Third-party scenarios discussed in this report reflect the modeling assumptions and outputs of their respective authors, not ExxonMobil, and their use and inclusion herein is not an endorsement by ExxonMobil of their results, likelihood or probability. Work on the Outlook and report was conducted during 2023 and 2024. The report contains forward looking statements, including projections, targets, expectations, estimates and assumptions of future behaviors. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the growth of energy demand and supply, the impact of new technologies, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy, emissions and plans to reduce emissions) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, the ability to scale new technologies on a cost-effective basis, unexpected technological developments, the development of new supply sources, changes in law or government policy, political events, demographic changes and migration patterns, trade patterns, the development and enforcement of global, regional or national mandates, changes in consumer preferences, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. The Outlook was published in August 2024. ExxonMobil assumes no duty to update these statements or materials as of any future date, and neither future distribution of this material nor the continued availability of this material in archive form on our website should be deemed to constitute an update or re-affirmation of this material as of any future date. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.